A Romney-friendly scenario
Earlier today, I suggested that Mitt Romney might be man to beat among the Republican contenders in spite of his problems in Iowa, and I promised to describe a scenario under which Romney wins the nomination. I now put forth that scenario.
Let’s start with Iowa. Here, I assume that Huckabee wins, though not by double digits. This, of course, constitutes a blow to Romney but its force is mitigated somewhat because (a) his defeat is no longer unexpected and (b) Hillary Clinton’s defeat on the Democratic side draws most of the attention.
Next comes New Hampshire. Here, Romney wins and by a good margin, thanks to the fact that non-Republicans (those who would likely support McCain or Giuliani) vote overwhelmingly in the suddenly-interesting Democratic contest. Romney’s win doesn’t make him the comeback kid, but it ends suggestions that he’s the new Howard Dean, and leaves him in a solid position to compete going forward.
The same cannot be said for Fred Thompson and John McCain. Thompson has finished a distant third in Iowa and has failed to register in New Hampshire. McCain has been rejected in the state that represented his best hope. In this scenario, both candidates are at or near the end of the line.
So it’s now a three-man race. The attacks on Huckabee have failed to derail him. He is buoyed by good fourth quarter fundraising numbers, and is quite competitive in South Carolina and Michigan. However, his support has peaked at between 20 and 25 percent nationally. In a three-way race, this won’t be enough.
That leaves Giuliani and Romney. Whichever of these two candidates commands, by then, the most support nationally will translate that edge into the delegate support needed to capture the nomination. As I write this post, Giuliani has the edge over Romney nationally, but only by about half the margin of a few months ago. Indeed, the latest Rasmussen tracking poll show Rudy only 4 percentage points ahead of Mitt.
By late January, in my scenario, Mitt has overtaken Rudy because most conservatives who were previously undecided or who supported Thompson or McCain have concluded that Romney (flawed though he is) is more conservative than Giuliani. McCain’s endorsement of Giuliani offsets this phenomenon to some extent, but not by enough in this scenario.
How plausible is this scenario? At least as plausible as any other, I submit, though probably not more plausible than all other scenarios combined.
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