Where does the Republican presidential race stand?

Featured image Here, via FiveThirtyEight, are the new betting market odds on the GOP race: Trump 43 Rubio 20 Bush 17 Cruz 16 Kasich 3 Christie 1 In my opinion, the Bush number is way too high and the Cruz number way too low. But then, Bush has been overestimated and Cruz underestimated ever since the race began. Almost everyone’s two takeaways from the New Hampshire primary are (1) Trump is now »

Where does the Democratic presidential race stand?

Featured imageEveryone has known for a good while that Hillary Clinton would lose to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. But it was far from clear that she would lose (as apparently she will) by 20 points. Where does this leave Clinton and Sanders? It leaves Clinton behind her Southern firewall. Her theory, widely shared, is that whatever happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, she will begin to win decisively once states »

Trump wins and probably wins big [updated continuously]

Featured imageThe networks have called Donald Trump the winner on the Republican side, and it looks like the margin of victory will be large. Currently, John Kasich, who is in second place, has only half of Trump’s vote total. It’s a good win for Trump, but how good? Around the time of the Iowa primary, I speculated that Trump needs at least one-third of the vote in the early contests to »

The 3 am Call at the DNC Tonight

Featured imageThe most astonishing thing about the result in New Hampshire tonight is not Bernie Sanders’s large margin of victory, but the exit poll result that showed a third of Democratic voters chose “honesty and trustworthiness” as the main thing that determined their vote. Sanders won these voters by a margin of more than 9 – 1. Clinton is finished. I’ll bet even Bill knows this. The DNC has to be »

As New Hampshire breaks for Trump, Join us live now at Power Line Live to discuss

Featured imagePower Line Live will be open for business tonight, and some of us will be in and out. For those curious, here are the early exit polls. Meanwhile, this is what’s on Fox News right now: Remember, no Republican has ever lost both of Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to become president. And no historical fact has ever changed in light of future circumstances. »

A “good” night for Kasich?

Featured imageHenry Enten at FiveThirtyEight writes: If you’re trying to read the tea leaves in the early results, you can already see how tonight could be a good one for John Kasich. He’s doing about as well as Jon Huntsman did in Lebanon in the western part of the state. If he can match Huntsman’s numbers in other places, it will probably be good enough for 17 percent statewide and second »

A tough night for Hillary [updated continuously]

Featured imageAs I write this, we’re about half an hour away from getting real election returns from New Hampshire. In the meantime, Fox News has put out some tantalizing exit poll results on the Democratic side. Almost one-third of voters in the Democratic primary told Fox that honesty/trustworthiness is the most important quality they’re looking for. Sanders won this group with more than 90 percent support. “Young” voters (I assume Fox »

The Spirit Of Dick Tuck Lives!

Featured imageDick Tuck is the legendary political prankster who, among other stunts, hired some pregnant black women to parade outside a Nixon rally in 1968 with signs bearing Nixon’s campaign slogan, “Nixon’s the one!” Tuck is still alive (at least according to the internet, so it must be true) but retired from political pranking. Or is he? He seems just like the person who’d come out of retirement for Bernie. Take »

The China Question

Featured imageAs we periodically ponder what is going on with China’s slowing economy, it might be worth stepping back to take in a more fundamental question. China’s fabulous growth over the last 25 years appears to call into question a favorite thesis of free marketeers such as Milton Friedman, namely, that in the long run you can’t have free markets and undemocratic government. You can for a while—think Chile in the »

William Tucker, RIP

Featured imageSad news yesterday of the passing of William Tucker, one of the great freelance journalists of our time. I didn’t know Bill especially well, but we spoke on the phone now and then, visited a few times in Washington, and were together just last September at an event at St. Francis College in Brooklyn, speaking about energy and environmentalism. I always learned something useful and original from him every time »

Trump? Seriously?

Featured imageYesterday, at a rally in Manchester, Donald Trump called Ted Cruz a “pussy.” He was cute about it as usual, attributing the line to someone in the crowd. Here’s the video: Trump has accomplished something I didn’t think possible: he has made our political discourse dumber. Then there is the fact that he is a Republican in name only. He says he agrees with the Democrats on most issues, including »

Obama’s Lame Duck Budget

Featured imagePresident Obama has unveiled his last budget proposal, which calls for $4.1 trillion in spending for FY 2017. In the final year of his presidency Obama is by definition a lame duck. With Republicans in control of Congress–even though it doesn’t always seem like it–he is the lamest possible duck. As always, Obama’s final budget purports to cover the next ten years. But since Obama will be gone in a »

Breaking: Supreme Court Blocks Obama’s Climate Plan

Featured imageThis is huge. The Supreme Court, by a 5 – 4 vote, has just issued a stay of Obama’s so-called “Clean Power Plan,” pending a full review of the case by a lower appeals court. ABC News reports: A divided Supreme Court agreed Tuesday to halt enforcement of President Barack Obama’s sweeping plan to address climate change until after legal challenges are resolved. The surprising move is a blow to the administration »

Today’s sports post: Canton

Featured imageThe NFL announced its latest Hall of Fame class last week. The new members are Brett Favre, Kenny Stabler, Marvin Harrison, Kevin Greene, Orlando Pace, Dick Stanfel, Eddie DeBartolo Jr, and Tony Dungy. The first five seem obviously to belong. Favre retired as the NFL’s all-time leader in completions, yards, and touchdowns. He’s a three-time MVP. Stabler led his Raiders to the AFC title game each season from 1973-77 and »

Counter this

Featured imageWhen I was working on the Weekly Standard article “The threat from ‘Minnesota men,'” I tried to get an interview with United States Attorney for Minnesota Andrew Luger about the pilot Countering Violent Extremism Program of which he is the nominal head. I studied up on the program as directed by Luger’s spokesman. The spokesman ultimately sent me on my way with a few unkind words about my failings while »

Dogging College PC

Featured imageTriumph the Insult Comedy Dog takes on takes on campus political correctness, and this ten minute video, just out yesterday, is worth every second, because even the students who get the joke are clearly uncomfortable. And that’s before the police sketch artist shows up. Strong language and crudity warning! But it’s still really great: Did I mention it has strong language and lots of crudity? Sorry, but wasn’t it worth it? »

A Friendly Reminder

Featured imageRemember: these are the same people who say that we know everything we need to know about climate change and how to fix it, and if you disagree you’re an immoral person and should shut up or be prosecuted and jailed: Matt Ridley wrote in the London Times yesterday (behind a paywall so forget a link): The shale revolution is the dominant reason for the fall. I know columnists are »