Posted on April 19, 2024 by John Hinderaker in 2024 Election, Donald Trump

Why Trump Might Win

Well, he gets to run against Joe Biden. That is the main reason. But one of the extraordinary features of this year’s race is the Democrats’ lawfare. In a series of civil cases and criminal prosecutions, they are trying to bleed Trump’s financial assets and, more important, convict him of a “felony” to convince voters not to vote for him. The prosecutions range from selective (Trump’s handling of classified information) to idiotic (the Georgia RICO case and the case in New York that is now in trial).

How is the public reacting to the Democrats’ unprecedented legal onslaught? Some polls have found that being a “convicted felon,” the Democrats’ objective, would indeed hurt Trump with a significant slice of the electorate. But then there is the opposite reaction.

Matt Taibbi, after expressing his admiration for Stephen A. Smith, ESPN’s top sports commentator, quotes Smith on the Trump prosecutions:

Last night, … I listened as Chris Cuomo told a story about an unnamed hip-hop artist complaining that it took a rich white man like Trump being abused, for people to see the “maladministration of justice” black people have always known. What did his guest, Stephen A. Smith, think?

STEPHEN A. SMITH: No question…that hip hop artist who called you, he’s right on the money… Here’s the sad part…It gives credence to the argument Trump made during a speech weeks ago where he talked about black folks relating to him… Now, what the hell would black folks have in common with a guy that was born on third base thinking he hit a home run? Born with the proverbial spoon in his mouth? It’s the legal system… I can say this because 95% of the time I voted Democrat…

But when it’s time to vote, you want to talk to black people about what you’re doing for them… and how you are on our side. But this man right here, who’s the presumptive GOP nominee, is in a position to literally get back into the White House because what you’re doing to him, we find fairly relatable to things that have been done to folks in our community, and it’s happened for decades. There’s no escaping that fact and Trump pointing it out, and being accurate in doing so, is perhaps the height of embarrassment for the Democratic party, in my estimation.

Interesting. Matt continues:

This exchange was preceded by a classic Stephen A-ism:

When you got four indictments and 91 counts and two impeachments and civil suits in excess of $454 million… but he still keeps marching forward, marching forward, gaining momentum… The only way to get him is to beat him, and they don’t seem to be able to do that either. And I’m quite disgusted by it, to be quite honest with you.

I think that is a widespread perception: the Democrats can’t beat Trump honestly, so they are trying to drag him down with systematic election interference. Taibbi comments:

Stephen A. may not be the spokesperson of “the black community,” but he might be Chief Justice of sports talk. Democrats should hear what he’s saying: to the average person, these interminable Trump indictments and lawsuits and lawfare (hearing a popular sportscaster use that term unironically should inspire a Beltway mass-clench) seem worse than cheating. It comes off as cowardice, fear of even competition, something that never, ever plays in this country. “The only way to get him is to beat him, and they don’t seem to be able to do that,” is a heavy indictment, and if he’s thinking that, you can bet a hell of a lot lot more people are.

The Democrats are often accused of cheating, but their abuse of the legal system is a form of cheating that is just as reprehensible as stuffing ballot boxes. If lots of people who may not be regular Republican voters see it that way, Biden is in deep trouble.

Posted on by John Hinderaker in 2024 Election, Joe Biden

Why Biden Can’t Win

I don’t think he can, anyway. Check out these numbers from Rasmussen:

Republicans have a major edge over Democrats in terms of voter excitement, and voters overwhelmingly see President Joe Biden as too old to hold the office..
***
More Republicans (68%) than Democrats (50%) are genuinely excited about the election rematch. Voters not affiliated with either major party are about evenly split between being genuinely excited (44%) and choosing the lesser of two evils (45%).

So, an 18-point advantage in enthusiasm.

Biden is 81 years old, and 57% of voters say he’s too old to be president, while 33% say he’s not too old.

How can Biden win when, apart from his other defects, 57% think he is simply too old for the job? And that perception is not going to weaken between now and November. Biden has signaled that he does not intend to debate Donald Trump. I don’t think he can. He isn’t up to it. The Democrats will try to sell the absurd idea that Biden isn’t afraid to debate, he just doesn’t want to “legitimize” Trump by sharing a stage with him. Right. When Biden refuses to debate Trump, it will seal the conclusion in just about every voter’s mind that he simply isn’t up to the job.

This is interesting, too. So much for the youth vote:

Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to think Biden is too old to be president.

The income breakdown is troubling for Biden:

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to say Biden is too old to be president.

That is Biden’s base! Conversely:

Those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 are most likely to say they’re genuinely excited about this year’s election choice.

Those are Trump’s voters. And this data point, like a number of others relating to Hispanics, is intriguing:

Hispanic voters are most likely to say they’re genuinely excited about the choice in this year’s election.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think they are excited to go out and vote for Joe Biden.

Why does Biden have a chance? Solely because he is running against Donald Trump. But I will have more to say about that, again in an optimistic vein, later.

Posted on by Steven Hayward in The Daily Chart

The Daily Chart: Democrats Turn on Israel

It’s not exactly news that a large portion of Democrats are anti-Israel, but it now appears to be a majority. The latest Gallup survey shows Israel with net negative sympathy among Democrats for the first time.

This marks the end of bipartisan support for Israel in American politics. Will this change historic voting patterns? As Trump likes to say, we’ll have to see what happens.

 

Posted on by Lloyd Billingsley in Music

Betts Bows Out

Guitarist Dickey Betts has died at 80 of cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. His departure leaves drummer Jai Johanny “Jaimoe” Johnson as the last original member of the Allman Brothers Band. Betts last played with the band in 2000, according to Fox News, “the same year he was officially kicked out of the group” reportedly for alcohol and drug use.

Check him out below from back in 1969 on “It’s Not My Cross to Bear,” with Gregg Allman on vocal and brother Duane Allman and Betts on the guitar solos. Not much like that going on today.

Posted on by Scott Johnson

Motown and memory

Listening to Tom Petty’s Buried Treasure channel on Sirius XM yesterday I heard a Motown song I hadn’t heard since I was a teenager — “You Beat Me To the Punch,” a hit single for Mary Wells and a deep track on The Temptations Sing Smokey. The song was written by Smokey Robinson and the Miracles’ Ronnie White. I take it from Nelson George’s Where Did Our Love Go? that the track was produced by Smokey. Below is the Mary Wells album version (in stereo).

Below is the Temptations deep track, lead vocal by Paul Williams. The backing by the Motown studio musicians is characteristically excellent on both tracks. That has to be James Jamerson on the bass, active and melodic.

The tempered sweetness of the song is what struck me this week. It got me thinking about the work of the late Nicholas Ashford and Valerie Simpson, also for Motown. I saw them perform together live twice and they simply blew me away. The songs they wrote for Motown radiated sweetness and light. Their show was something like a tribute to marital passion. But that was another place and another time.

My stream of consciousness triggered by hearing the Mary Wells single this week led me to revisit what I had written about Ashford and Simpson on Power Line in years past. Finding something that was in an archived draft, I accidentally published it this morning and then immediately deleted it. If you saw some obsolete reference to them in a post that mysteriously disappeared, that’s why. I regret the error.

Posted on by Scott Johnson in Anti-Semitism, Books, Higher education

The raspberry statement

Current events at Columbia may call to mind events at Columbia circa 1968. Before matriculating at Dartmouth in the fall of 1969, I joined a group of incoming freshmen who met to discuss Eldridge Cleaver’s Soul On Ice and Columbia undergrad James Simon Kunen’s just-published The Strawberry Statement.

We didn’t take Cleaver’s book particularly seriously and Eric Hoffer did even less so. He caustically mocked it as Soul On Horse Manure. However, Kunen’s book enjoyed a warm reception. I recall reading a Literary Guild book club edition for our group discussion (and the book remains in print). The next year it was turned into a bad movie with a good soundtrack (trailer below).

The title of Kunen’s book alluded to remarks on Columbia student protests made by the aptly named Columbia Dean Herbert Deane in a 1967 interview with the school newspaper. Referring to Kunen and his ilk, Dean Deane opined that the views of students should not necessarily influence university policy. He explained, not unreasonably, “Whether students vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on a given issue means as much to me as if they were to tell me they like strawberries.” Mister, we could use a man like Dean Deane again.

It occurs to me that current events at Columbia call for The Raspberry Statement. Washington Free Beacon reporter Aaron Sibarium may be the man to write the book. He tells the story here and in the series of tweets below.

Posted on by Scott Johnson in Iran, Israel

Israel strikes Isfahan

Reports overnight indicate that Israel struck a military base in Isfahan from which Iran launched drones against Israel in last weekend’s massive Iranian attack. The Times of Israel story is posted here. The attack is described as “limited.” Reliable information about the attack is itself “limited.”

There was a message or two or three in the attack. Yonah Jeremy Bob makes this point at the Jerusalem Post in his a href=”https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/attack-on-iran-next-to-nuclear-site-sends-message-we-could-have-done-worse-here-analysis-797899″>analysis of the attack:

Sources have confirmed to the Jerusalem Post that the attack on Iran at Isfahan, attributed by sources in the New York Times to Israel, hit Iranian air force assets at Isfahan, almost right next door to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear site in the same area.

The message was unmistakable, ‘we chose not to hit your nuclear sites this time, but we could have done worse right here,’ sources told the Post.

In other words, the attack at Isfahan was designed not only to hurt Iran but also to make it eminently clear how vulnerable to attack its nuclear sites are.

Long-range missiles from aircraft were used to avoid Tehran’s radar detection capabilities.

This could be done again at any time.

Over at X Gabriel Noronha has posted an analytical thread that begins and ends with the following tweets.

While Israel seeks to restore deterrence, Iran holds Hezbollah’s vast store of missiles in reserve to Israel’s immediate north.