Several readers have pointed out that today’s Rasmussen Tracking Poll shows President Bush with a five-point lead over John Kerry, 48% to 43%, the largest lead either man has had since Kerry became the Democrats’ front-runner.
As Dafydd ab Hugh says, “Gallup has Kerry 12 points over Bush, Kerry shooting up seven points from a week ago.
Rasmussen has Bush 5 points over Kerry, Bush shooting up six points from a day ago.
John, this is *not mathematically possible* unless one or both of the polls are complete garbage. The science of polling is well understood; you simply cannot have a SEVENTEEN-POINT GAP in the interval between two candidates… unless one of the polls is being either deliberately skewed or conducted so incompetently as to border on the criminal.” Dafydd nominates the Gallup poll we linked below, on the ground that it has Kerry surging at the very time that we know his support was falling in Wisconsin.
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