The wisdom of crowds

Reader Royal Masset writes:

I have done professional polling and enjoy your remarks. But you are missing a gold mine of accurate data. Over the last twenty years I have found the bookies to be more accurate than most pollsters. In this current election Tradesports has been unerringly right in its judgments.
They prefer to be called a futures markets rather than bookies. But they have handled millions of dollars in bets in the presidential race, senate races and hundreds of other bettable items. The odds they have given for George Bush, determined by the market, not fixed by a bookie, have always made sense to me.
After you broke the story of CBS memos the market greatly increased the odds of Bush winning, even before the mainstream media picked up your story. They have been at their best during the debates. Although I am strongly for George, I did feel his performance Thursday was very weak. In the beginning of the debate the TradeSports market gave Bush a 69% chance of winning. Within two hours, thirty minutes after the debate, his odds sank to 63% Today they are down to 58%.
Rasmussen if my favorite pollster and believe his tracking poll. But I also believe the market which gives Bush only a 58% chance of winning, which is cutting his lead by half since the debate, is accurate and has probably discounted the idea that Bush will not do well in future debates and Kerry will be the comeback kid in the media.
You would enjoy looking at TradeSports if you haven’t already.


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