I don’t believe this one, either

Today’s Gallup Poll has President Bush ahead by eight points among likely voters, 52% to 44%. I’m glad to have this survey getting some publicity, but I don’t believe it for a moment. You apparently can’t get the poll’s internal numbers without subscribing to Gallup’s service, which we don’t do, but those data will come out soon, and when they do, I’m pretty sure they’ll show a screwy sample.
Meanwhile, the President leads Kerry by two points in both the Zogby and Rasmussen tracking polls. I’ll settle for that.
UPDATE: Just for fun, I went back and checked Gallup’s trend line for the 2000 election. On just about this date in 2000, Gallup reported that George Bush had a 13-point lead over Al Gore, 52% to 39%. This result was an obvious outlier with no apparent relation to what was happening in the campaign. The final Gallup poll had Bush winning by 2 points.


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