President Bush currently has 204 electoral votes. He obviously will win Florida, which makes 231. I assume he will take Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, Nevada and Arkansas for an additional 28, making 259. If he wins Ohio, of course, the race is over. If he loses Ohio, he needs 10 more votes. If he holds on to win Wisconsin, he has 269 votes for a tie, which he would win in the House of Representatives. Not ideal, but if he retains his strong advantage in the popular vote, the result would not be anywhere near as controversial as the 2000 race.
If he loses both Ohio and Wisconsin, then Bush needs to find 10 votes from the following states: Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4) and Hawaii (4). Right now, Bush is doing poorly in Minnesota and not well in Iowa. If he loses both, he’s left with New Hampshire and Hawaii–but together, they only have eight votes. So the night is far from over.
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