A number of readers have asked us what we think of the National Intelligence Council’s report on the “2020 Project,” which was released Thursday. I am still reading the report, but my main reaction so far is: is this really the best our intelligence agencies can do? So far, I’ve seen nothing that couldn’t have been written by any reasonably well-informed person.
Check out, for example, the section that covers terrorism, titled “Pervasive Insecurity”. It ventures these bold predictions:
The key factors that spawned international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next 15 years. Experts assess that the majority of international terrorist groups will continue to identify with radical Islam.
A radical takeover in a Muslim country in the Middle East could spur the spread of terrorism in the region and give confidence to others that a new Caliphate is not just a dream.
Informal networks of charitable foundations, madrasas, hawalas, and other mechanisms will continue to proliferate and be exploited by radical elements.
Alienation among unemployed youths will swell the ranks of those vulnerable to terrorist recruitment.
There are indications that the Islamic radicals