What Can the Mullahs Do?

This post by Austin Bay is a useful follow-up to Scott’s discussion of Iran below. Austin has war-gamed the possibility of an Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, through which 20% of the world’s oil production passes. The results are interesting, to say the least. To me, the most optimistic observation, by one of Austin’s commenters, is that China is largely dependent on oil that flows through the Strait and would not look kindly on disruption of its supply.


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