A four-cornered hypothesis

Minneapolis attorney Andrew Jacobson connects the dots among current events in Israel’s neighborhood:

1. Iran is trying to build a bomb and moving fast in those efforts. Who knows how long it will take, but the Manhattan project took us less than 4 years, starting from scratch and without computers or prior technology. Difficult to believe that it will take Iran (which has already been working on this program for a number of years) 10 more years to complete. I just have no faith that the Iranians are that dumb.

2. Iran is a patron and has some level of control over Hamas.

3. Iran has a close patron relationship with Hezbollah.

4. Iran is a patron and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

5. Iran supports and/or controls some of the Shiite insurgents in Iraq.

6. North Korea is one of Iran’s few friends and allies.

7. Hamas and Hezbollah know that Israel must militarily react to the recent kidnaps and attacks and that their actions will ignite, at a minimum, a low level military conflict/incursion by Israel into the Gaza and Lebanon.

8. Any military action by Israel will naturally to draw knee-jerk and harsh international criticism of Israel, regardless of the acts of the provoking parties.

9. In spite of its embarrassing missile fizzle, North Korea knows that its July 4th stunt is extremely provocative to the United States.

10. Higher gas prices (created in large part by the actions of Iran) have the American public and economy concerned.

11. Constant low level violence in Iraq, and the eager air play given such violence in the American MSM, have created an anti-war mood in the U.S.

11. Hezbollah’s, Hamas’s and North Korea’s provocations have all occurred within a week of the date that the Iran situation is referred to the Security Council for what will likely be further endless hand wringing and inaction by that feckless organization.

13. Only two countries have the military will (maybe) and capability (probably) to possibly stop Iran from moving forward with its nuclear program — Israel and the U.S.

So here is my observation/theory — Iran has orchestrated much (if not all) of the current unrest and violence in order to: (i) distract attention from its nuclear weapons program, (ii) tie down Israel militarily in order to reduce the chances that Israel could unilaterally (or in combination with the U.S.) launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, (iii) scare the American public (and politicians) into rejecting any unilateral military option against Iran for fear of further inflaming the Mideast (e.g., “Geez, we’ve already got huge issues in North Korea, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, we can’t possibly afford any further foreign entanglements” or “We better not do anything to Iran, we might further inflame the Mideast, threaten our oil supply and the U.S. economy” (Lord knows we don’t want to pay $%/gallon for our SUV’s)), and (iv) create world furor against Israel (and indirectly the U.S.), to further raise the stakes and international opposition to any unilateral military strikes.

In today’s New York Sun, David Twersky pursues a related train of thought: “War on Iran has begun.” At NRO, Michael Ledeen has been on the case for quite a while. Today he comments: “The same war.” Ledeen writes: “You cannot escape the mullahs. You must either defeat them or submit to their terrible vision. There is no other way.”


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