I’m starting to feel better

about Republican prospects for the Senate. I’ve predicted that the Republicans will lose five seats, leaving the balance at 50-50. However, I’m starting to like the party’s chances in two races that the 50-50 scenario assumes will be won by Democrats. The first race is Missouri, where Senator Talent now is slightly ahead of his rival. The second is New Jersey, where the junior Tom Kean has a good shot at taking down the uninspiring Robert Menendez and the corrupt state party behind him.

Some polls have shown that Democrat Jim Webb suddenly has a shot at Senator Allen of Virginia, who now has blogger Jon Henke (no friend of Power Line) on board. My 50-50 scenario assumes an Allen win, and I remain reasonably confident that Allen will prevail.

JOHN adds: Here in Minnesota, Rasmussen Reports came out with updated numbers earlier today showing Democrat Amy Klobuchar’s lead over our friend Mark Kennedy down to seven points, from twelve at the beginning of August. That twelve point lead was probably a fluke, with seven being a more reasonable depiction of where the race stands. I take issue, though, with Rasmussen’s statement that “the Kennedy campaign has been throwing everything they’ve got at the DFL candidate,” In fact, Klobuchar hit the air waves first, and Kennedy’s campaign has barely begun, with the first batch of ads now running. They are soft-focus ads introducing Kennedy to the voters; so far, he has said little about Klobuchar. Discussions of her liberal positions across a broad range of issues and the steep jump in violent crime during her tenure as Hennepin County Attorney are yet to come.


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