Will Israel give war a chance?

John Keegan, the outstanding mililtary historian, predicts that Israel and Hezbollah will soon be at war again in South Lebanon. He writes:

The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah’s fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.

Keegan is correct that Israel cannot tolerate Hezbollah’s rebuilding efforts. And he is correct that Hezbollah is reconstructing its fortified zone and replenishing its stocks of missiles, even as Hamas creates a fortified zone and stocks it with missiles in the Gaza Strip. However, I question whether Israel has the will to do anything about the situation in South Lebanon, particularly with U.N. forces now serving as cover and protection for Hezbollah. An attack against Hamas in Gaza sounds rather more plausible.


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