Counting to 60

NRO’s Corner continues to be the best source I know of for reports on how tomorrow’s cloture vote on the immigration reform bill is likely to go. The latest indications are that Harry Reid may come up short of the 60 votes needed to move the legislation forward. NRO cites a report that Richard Burr, Christopher Bond, and Ben Nelson are opposed to permitting a vote on final passage, while Jim Webb, John Ensign and Pete Domenici said they were leaning that way. If five of these six defect, Reid can’t get to 60 unless he pulls someone new into his camp (and I haven’t seen any reports that this is likely). Furthermore, Ted Stevens, Lisa Murkowski, Judd Gregg, Jeff Bingaman, and Mark Pryor are said to be undecided. What Norm Coleman will do apparently is anyone’s guess.
Some of the defections are being driven not just by amendments that have been defeated, but amendments that haven’t gotten a hearing. Even so, we shouldn’t underestimate the ability of the Senate to come together in a bad cause.
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