Is bin Laden Dead?

When people ask what issues I’ve been most notably or embarrassingly wrong about, I always say that for two years, I believed that Osama bin Laden was dead. That conviction was crushed when he released his John Kerry campaign commercial shortly before the 2004 election.
Still, hope springs eternal, and it’s been quite a while since bin Laden has been heard from. The release of a new video a few days ago, which features Osama in footage that is obviously some years old, has caused others, including Michael Ledeen (via InstaPundit), to speculate that the old terrorist is no more.
I hope that’s right, but given my own history on this question, I’ll pop no champagne corks until we know for sure.
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