Fox News still considers the race too close to call. Apparently, Fox’s exit poll had Obama ahead, but not outside of the margin of error. Meanwhile, Michael Barone, who has diligently been studying raw vote counts town-by-town (as only Michael can do) has said that “there is a real possibility that Hillary Clinton could win this.”
UPDATE: With about half of the Democratic vote counted, Clinton is ahead by about 3 percentage points. According to Michael Barone, the major college towns — Durham, Hanover, and Exeter — haven’t reported yet. These are Obama strongholds, but there aren’t that many voters there.
Barone says that Clinton is “outpolling” her exit poll results, which renders those results basically meaningless at this juncture (Obama’s lead wasn’t statistically significant anyway). She’s showing great strength in lower income areas in the big (by New Hampshire standards) cities and town. It seems that turnout was high in these areas, not just in “Obama country.”
MORE: Most importantly, Clinton is carrying the female vote (which I have over-touted as her “get out of jail card”) by 13 percentage points. She actually lost the female vote in Iowa, but there, among other factors, women with children in the home were less likely to turn out due to the timing (at night) and protracted nature of the caucus process.
To comment on tonight’s results, go here.
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