for what it’s worth. An American Research Group poll has John McCain and Mike Huckabee trading places in the last few days. Polling conducted on January 15-16 had McCain at 33 percent and Huckabee at 23 percent. Polling conducted on January 17-18 has Huckabee at 33 percent and McCain at 26 percent.
During this very short period, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney also traded places. According to ARG, Fred went from 13 percent to 21 percent, while Mitt dropped from 20 percent to 9 percent.
Though I wouldn’t rely on the numbers, I tned to believe both trends — Huckabee moving up at McCain’s expense; Thompson moving up at Romney’s expense.
The Jan. 15-16 ARG poll indicated (implausibly, as I noted at the time) that only 3 percent of the voters were undecided. The about-face reflected in the latest poll shows that, in practical terms, the “undecided” vote was much more substantial. The latest ARG poll had undecided at 4 percent, which continues to understate the volatility of the race in my view.
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