Obama’s Bounce

Rasmussen Reports shows Barack Obama with a four-point lead this morning. Last night was the first time Rasmussen’s survey followed both Obama’s convention speech and McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin. While a few interviews would have been conducted Thursday night after Obama’s speech, for practical purposes today’s result reflects both the speech and Palin’s nomination for the first time.

Since Rasmussen’s margin was three points yesterday, the fact that it went up by only one point suggests that McCain’s selection of Palin may have blunted the impact of Obama’s acceptance speech, which was generally considered a success in political terms. If Obama really came out of his convention with only a four-point bounce, it’s good news for Republicans.

SCOTT adds: Reader Avinash Singh comments:

If you compare the Rasmussen numbers before the start of the Dem convention and after the end, you could argue that there was no significant change in the polls at all.

Mon, Aug 25 (reflecting polling till Sunday), with “leaners” – Obama 48, McCain 45
Sat, Aug 30 (reflecting polling till Friday), with “leaners” – Obama 49, McCain 45.

The convention and the acceptance speech appear to have been a wash.

Rasmussen’s numbers so far show a smaller bounce than Gallup, but Singh’s observation may be worth keeping in mind in looking at the numbers over the next few days.

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