The political pendulum continues to swing the Republicans’ way; as we’ve noted before, the gap between self-identified Democrats and Republicans is narrowing. Consistent with that trend, the generic Congressional preference is also getting tighter, as Scott Rasmussen reports:
The Democratsâ€™ lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot has fallen slightly for the fourth week in a row. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if given the choice, 44% of voters would choose their districtâ€™s Democratic candidate, while 38% would choose the Republican candidate.
That six-point advantage is still significant, of course, but it is far better for the Republicans than the ridiculous leads, ranging as high as 18 points, that the Dems enjoyed earlier this year. Moreover, with the trend continuing to flow toward the Republicans, it is reasonable to expect both the party ID and generic ballot numbers to close further between now and November.
What this means, I think, is that while November’s election may not be a great one for the Republicans, it also won’t be the kind of blowout we saw in 2006.
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