In May of this year, looking ahead to the McCain-Obama race, I opined that â€œthe â€˜fundamentalsâ€™ favor the Democrats by at least ten percentage points.â€ However, I did not predict that Obama would win by 10 points. For it seemed to me that McCain would outdo a â€œgenericâ€ Republican and that Obama would under-perform a generic Democrat. Moreover, some smart people insisted that the Democratsâ€™ generic advantage was less than 10 points.
Five month and an economic crisis later, I believe that 10 points understates the Democratsâ€™ advantage. It still seems likely that McCain will out-perform, and Obama under-perform, their generic counterparts. However, the McCain brand has been damaged, with the assistance of the MSM, by Obamaâ€™s relentless attacks. In addition, Obama has done a pretty good job of conning voters into believing that he is, precisely, a generic Democrat.
Accordingly, the possibility that Obama will win by 10 points or more cannot be ruled out.
And even if Obama fades under last minute scrutiny to the point that the race becomes close, the Democratsâ€™ generic advantage might well produce a rout in the Senate. For example, Elizabeth Dole and Norm Coleman are both in trouble.
It seems odd that the people of Minnesota would infer from an economic crisis that they should send a baggy pants comedian to the Senate, but I suppose a panic consists, in part, of irrational behavior on a large scale.
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