It’s been pretty clear for quite a while now that the Democrats are likely to suffer heavy losses in congressional races this fall. The big question has been, how heavy.
A new NPR poll suggests that the losses may well be heavy enough to shift control of the House to the Republicans. The poll finds that in the 60 congressional districts where Democrats are considered most vulnerable, Democrats trail their Republican opponent, 42 to 47 percent, with only a third saying they want to vote to reelect their member. In the 30 most vulnerable of these, the Democratic candidate trails by 9 points (39 to 48 percent). In the next 30, they trail 2 points (45 to 47 percent).
Moreover, there is a considerable enthusiasm gap. In the 60 districts, Republicans have a 14 point advantage (53 to 39) among voters who rate their interest in the election as 8 or higher on a 10-point scale.
If the Republicans win only 25 of the 30 districts in which, on aggregate, they lead by 9 percentage points and only half of the districts in which they lead by 2 percentage points, that’s a pick-up of 40 seats (which I believe is the magic number for gaining a majority) without winning in any other district. But, considering how well Republicans do in the second tier of 60 vulnerable seats, the number of vulnerable Democratic seats very likely exceeds 60.
Nor are the Dems likely to pick up more than a very small number of Republican-held seats. The same poll looked at the 10 most vulnerable such seats and found the Republican ahead by 16 points. That’s not very vulnerable.
The poll didn’t just analyze the horse races, it also tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results “consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown.” This suggests that, although things certainly can change before November, the Repubican advantage rests on a solid foundation. The essence of that foundation — the view that the Democrats are govening from too far over on the left — will still be in place come November.
- Subscribe now!... Get rid of ADs!Support Power Line...VIP MembershipPresentsPower Line
-
Most Read on Power Line
-
Our Favorites
- American Greatness
- American Thinker
- Ann Althouse
- Belmont Club
- Center of the American Experiment
- Claremont Institute
- Dartblog
- Hot Air
- Hugh Hewitt
- InstaPundit
- Jewish World Review
- Legal Insurrection
- Library of Law and Liberty
- Lileks
- Lucianne
- Michael Ramirez Cartoons
- Michelle Malkin
- Real Clear Politics
- Ricochet
- Roger L. Simon
- Steyn Online
- Tim Blair
- Urgent Agenda
Media
Subscribe to Power Line by Email
Find us on Facebook
-
“Arise and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.” Winston Churchill
“Proclaim Liberty throughout All the land unto All the Inhabitants Thereof.” Inscription on the Liberty Bell
-
Archives
-