Who’s hot?

According to a SurveyUSA poll of 572 likely voters in New York statewide races, Joe Dioguardi is essentially tied with Kirstin Gillibrand in the race to fill Hillary Clinton’s old seat for the final two years that remain in its term. The SurveyUSA poll results show Gillibrand with a one-point lead, 45-44 percent. Other poll results, such as those in the Cuomo-Paladino race for governor (49 to 40 percent) and for the Schumer-Townsend (who?) race for New York’s other Senate seat (54 to 33 percent) run about as might be expected this year, so the Gillibrand-DioGuardi race may well be as competitive as the poll represents. If Gillibrand is indeed substantially short of 50 percent at this point, the race should in fact be winnable for DioGuardi. The New York Daily News includes the SurveyUSA poll in its account of the poll results.
A September 21 post by CAC at Ace of Spades predicted that the Gililbrand-Dioguardi race would be competitive. Among other things, the post links to the takes of John Fund and Dick Morris & Eileen McGann on the race. DioGuardi’s site is here; contribute here.
UPDATE: The Quinnipiac Poll (likely voters) puts Gillibrand up over DioGuardi by 48-42 percent; the Siena Poll (registered voters) puts Gillibrand up over DioGuardi 57 to 31 percent.