At the end of September, I expressed my disappointment at the polls I’d been seeing in the Washington Senate race. It didn’t quite make sense to me that, in this Republican year, Dino Rossi, an attractive Republican challenger who was nearly elected Governor in 2004, was trailing the lame Democratic incumbent Patty Murray by more than five percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average. I noted, though, that the most recent polls showed Rossi trailing by smaller margins.
Since then, two polls have shown Rossi to be ahead of Murray. Consequently, the Real Clear Politics average now has the race a virtual dead-heat.
My disappointment/surprise now shifts to California, where Barbara Boxer has a five point lead over Carly Fiorina in the Real Clear Politics average. Why is Boxer’s lead holding up, while Murray’s lead and the lead Harry Reid had earlier have evaporated?
California certainly is a liberal state, more so, perhaps, than Washington. And Fiorina seems more controversial than Rossi, though certainly not more so than Sharron Angle.
But Boxer’s approval rating is “upside down” at 41-48. And she seems to combine Murray’s lack of acuity with Reid’s unlikeability. Meanwhile, Fiorina strikes me, on balance, as one of the most attractive Republican challengers for the Senate.
Therefore, for what it’s worth, I expect Fiorina to surge, as Rossi and Angle have.
You can help Carly Fiorina here.
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