Another look at the Alaska race

An outfit called Alaskans Standing Together has released a poll taken by an outfit called Hellenthal and Associates. It purports to show Lisa Murkowski leading Joe Miller by 43.5 to 29. Democrat Scott McAdams trails with 23 percent.
As I said yesterday, I don’t believe the Hays poll that had Murkowski 11 points up on Miller. Similarly, I don’t believe the Hellenthal poll that has Murkowski up by more than 14. I do believe, based on what I’ve heard about internal polling, that Murkowski was probably ahead of Miller at the time these polls were taken.
The polls were taken before the big Thursday night Palin rally on behalf of Miller. I don’t know whether that rally will help Miller get his momentum back, but I suspect it might. I also have no clear idea how far ahead in the polls Murkowski would have to be in order to expect to win as a write-in candidate.