Ten 2012 predictions

In her omniscient narrative voice, George Eliot says in Middlemarch that prophecy is the most gratuitous form of human error. It is an insight from which we can learn a lot. The other forms of human error are less gratuitous. They are nevertheless probably all inherent in our humanity.

Having acknowledged the wisdom of Ms. Eliot, I now succumb to the most gratuitous form of human error, with a little cheating to boost my average. Looking ahead to the new year, shooting for gentleman’s C, I offer 10 modest predictions in the spirit of the political season that is upon us.

1. The Iowa caucuses will yield Rick Santorum as the last of the non-Romneys in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, but results in subsequent primaries will produce the recycling of one of the previous non-Romneys for another turn in the sun.

2. Rick Perry will be the last of the non-Romneys in contention against Governor Romney.

3. Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee.

4. Inflation will continue to bubble under the surface as an issue contributing to the Carterization of Obama.

5. The GOP will lose a few seats in the House but retain the majority. It will also pick up enough seats in the Senate — say 5 — to regain the majority.

6. The GOP will give back a few House seats it won in the anti-Obama wave of 2010, but it will also turn over a few House seats currently held by Democrats. One of the newly elected members helping to defray GOP losses in the House will be our friend Tom Cotton in Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District. Tom will go on to become one of the GOP’s shining stars.

7. The United States will not take overt military action to retard Iran’s nuclear program.

8. President Obama will not be reelected to a second term.

9. The Supreme Court will not save us from Obamacare. If we are to be saved, our elected representatives will have to do it.

10. Three of the best non-fiction books published in 2012 will be (a) Peace, They Say: A History of the Nobel Peace Prize, the Most Famous and Controversial Prize in the World, by Jay Nordlinger; (b) After Americanism: The Cultural Revolution Comes Home to Roost, by David Gelernter; and (c) The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Presidents: From Wilson to Obama, by our own Steven Hayward.

And for extra credit, boosting my C- to a gentleman’s C: You will hear more about all three of those books on Power Line.

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