Safe House

Plenty of uncertainty surrounds this year’s election. Will Romney defeat Obama? Will the Republicans gain control of the Senate? Right now, both seem like roughly even money propositions.

When it comes to the House, however, considerably less uncertainty exists. In all likelihood, the Republicans will retain control.

This, Politico tells us, is the view of all three major congressional political prognotication services: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Rothenberg Political Report, and Cook Political Report. Sabato projects “a Democratic gain of somewhere between five and 10 seats, with a specific guess of Democrats plus six.” Rothenberg expects “modest Democratic gains, probably in the low to mid single digits, though anything from a small Republican gain to Democratic gains in the high single digits seem possible.” Currently, his estimate stands between a +1 gain for Republicans and a +6 gain for Democrats. Thus Sabato’s prediction is at the upper end of Rothenberg’s range.

So too with Cook. According to Politico, in June Cook adjusted his House forecast in favor of the Republicans. Previously, he predicted a gain for the Dems of between five and 15 seats. Now he expects “a minimal net partisan change, most likely between two seats for Republicans and eight for Democrats.”

The Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to regain control of the House. Right now, they do not seem to be even within shouting distance of that number.


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