Still a dead heat, Part Two

Yesterday, I noted that fresh polls from Rasmussen and Gallup show the presidential race to be what it’s been for months now — a dead heat. Today comes a Washington Post poll showing the two candidates deadlocked at 47 percent. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has Romney up by three points in its latest tracking poll.

Two points should be made about the Post’s poll. First, it samples registered voters, rather than likely voters. Second, Republicans made up 27 percent of the poll’s sample of registered voters. Democrats, by contrast, made up 36 percent of that sample.

This may overstate the gap in party registration and almost certainly overstates the gap among those who are likely to vote. Indeed, given the “enthusiasm gap” the Democrats appear to be laboring under, it is unlikely that the Democrats will enjoy anything close to a plus 9 advantage in registration among voters who actually turn out on election day this year. If so, the Post sample is somewhat skewed in favor of Obama.

If anything, then, the Post’s poll suggests that Romney may be first among equals in this tight race, as it stands now.

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