Two new polls of the Virginia Senate race show what virtually every such poll for months has indicated — the race between Tim Kaine and George Allen is deadlocked. The latest from Rasmussen has the race dead even, at 46-46. Quinnipiac gives Kaine an insignificant 48-46 lead.
Obama seems consistently to poll about two points better against Romney in Virginia than Kaine does against Allen. In a sense, this is odd. Kaine is more moderate than Obama and thus should not lag. On the other hand, Allen presumably is more popular than Romney, who is a “stranger” at this point, and one who has been hammered by negative advertising.
I give Romney a good chance of closing any gap he may have in relation to Allen. But under current polling, this would still leave him no better than a 50-50 bet to carry the state.