In Virginia, that long-awaited “outlier” poll

Throughout 2012, the Virginia Senate race has polled as a dead-heat. The law of averages (or the law of manipulative polling) would suggest that at least once or twice a poll would show either Democrat Tim Kaine or Republican George Allen with a lead at or beyond the margin of error. But if there was such a poll, I missed it.

Now, though, a poll by Gravis Marketing taken on September 8 and 9 shows Allen leading Kaine by 48-43. It also shows Romney leading Obama by 5 points, 49-44 margin.

Gravis sampled 2238 likely voters. Given such a large sample, the margin of error is only 2.2 percent.

So, has the Virginia Senate race turned in Allen’s favor? I doubt it. Three other polls taken within the past 30 days (from NBC/WSJ/Marist, Rasmussen, and PPP) all show Kaine and Allen in a flat-footed tie. The Gravis Marketing poll looks like that long-awaited “outlier.” For my money, this race is still a deadheat.


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