Steve wondered yesterday whether Minnesota might be in play in the presidential race. I was skeptical, and Scott was even more so, pointing out that Obama’s ad buy in Minnesota is aimed at western Wisconsin, which is covered by the Twin Cities media market. One could add that Jill Biden’s visit here is to raise money, not campaign, and hence not a sign of desperation.
Still, for what it’s worth, I learned today that private polling done a few weeks ago showed Obama leading Romney by only four points, while the most recent private polling has Romney pulling within two points. As I pointed out here, there are demographic reasons why it is not entirely fanciful to think that Romney might carry Minnesota, but no matter what the polling suggests, I do not think it is realistic to think he could do so without campaigning here or advertising here. So, while a state or two might surprise us on November 6, it isn’t likely to be Minnesota.
Still, we can always hope. I’ve put in for a lawn sign.
STEVE adds: A commenter below, Bill Slocum, expressed his skepticism with the observation that Minnesota is the only state that never voted for Ronald Reagan even once. Never mind that MN had a favorite son on the ballot, and that MN Dems may have stolen the 1984 count to save Mondale’s ego (Vin Weber told me this once). Point taken. I was invited once to speak at the Hubert Humphrey Institute at the U. of Minnesota as the sacrificial/token conservative at a conference there, and I opened by saying how disorienting is was as a conservative to speak in the only state that never voted for Reagan.
The audience erupted in thunderous, self-congratulatory applause. I went on to twit them a bit about conservative aspects of Hubert Humphrey, and how he differed from liberals today. (Pro-life, for example.) The audience did not erupt in applause. In fact I could see them all shifting uncomfortably in their seats. I had a good time.