Mixed Senate polling news

Massachusetts: A UMass/Boston Herald poll has Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, 49-48, among likely voters. However, other recent pollsfind Warren ahead by about 5 points.

UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll.

This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However, I fear that the pro-Obama tide in Massachusetts may well see Warren through.

Virginia: NBC/WSJ/Marist shows Tim Kaine ahead of George Allen by 3 points, 49-46. The same outfit has Obama ahead of Romney in Virginia by 1 point.

I believe that Romney will outperform Allen in Virginia, perhaps by 2 points as NBC/WSJ/Marist suggests. I also believe that Romney is likely to win Virginia by 2 points or more. So this race still strikes me as a tossup.

Ohio: Ohio Poll/Univ.Cin. finds Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel by 4 points, 50-46. This lead pretty much reflects the RCP average. Rasmussen, however, has the two candidates tied at 48 percent.

Brown remains the favorite in this race. However, a very strong Republican showing on Election Day could produce an upset.


Books to read from Power Line