Hillary Sagging, Sanders Surging?

As a public service for you, we regularly screen Salon —yes, it is indeed the news review equivalent of an enema. Salon’s featured article right now is “An Open Letter to White America” about the aftermath of the Charleston massacre. Yes, you’d be right in thinking this letter’s “openness” is about as open as driving school for girls in Saudi Arabia. First sentence: “The Charleston shooting is a textbook example of White Privilege.” Yes, this is the reason I don’t ever use textbooks in any of my classes.

But if you persevere with Salon, you come to this fun article:

Hillary Clinton is going to lose: She doesn’t even see the frustrated progressive wave that will nominate Bernie Sanders

By Bill Curry

Hillary Clinton went to New York’s Roosevelt Island earlier this month to relaunch her campaign for president. Her first kickoff fell flat, perhaps because she herself didn’t attend, opting instead to send a video greeting card in which people she still insists on calling ‘everyday Americans’ shared their life plans. . .

She delivered a 45-minute speech that told us little more than that three-minute video. She still won’t say where she’d peg the minimum wage or if she’d ever rein in the surveillance state or get us out of Iraq. Most amazing is how she finesses the Trans Pacific Partnership that President Obama so covets. It’s the biggest deal in the history of commerce; its investor tribunals would substitute corporate for democratic will here and around the world — and Clinton hasn’t said boo about it. Some ask how she gets away with it. I’m not so sure she does. . .

Democratic elites don’t want to hear it but Hillary Clinton’s in trouble. It isn’t in all the data yet though you can find it if you look.  In a straw poll taken in early June at a Wisconsin Democratic convention she edged out Bernie Sanders by just 8 points, 49% to 41%. In a poll of N.H. primary voters this week she beat Sanders by 41% to 31%. An Ohio poll had her in a dead heat with the likes of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. If Sanders can poll 40% in a Wisconsin straw poll in June he can do it    an Iowa caucus in January. Imagine a Hillary Clinton who just lost Iowa and New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders. It’s still hard to picture but it gets easier every day. . .

I think this analysis is correct. And I think Democratic elites will panic very fast if Hillary loses Iowa and New Hampshire, just as they did in 1988 when Jesse Jackson briefly became the front-runner. If was a betting man, I might throw down some cash on Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee next year. Because there’s no chance the Democratic establishment will let Sanders win the nomination.

By the way, who is Bill Curry, the author of this piece? Salon tells us:

Bill Curry was White House counselor to President Clinton and a two-time Democratic nominee for governor of Connecticut.

In other words, an old Clintonista. Wonder what he did to get exiled from the fold?

UPDATE: I see the great Roger Simon is thinking the same way:

The Dems are coming out of the closet  and running a genuine socialist for the first time in years – Bernie Sanders.  Misguided as he is,  you have to applaud Bernie for his honesty.  And Democratic voters are impressed – at least those in New Hampshire.  In the latest poll, out of nowhere, Sanders is only 10 points behind Hillary in that first primary state (41-31).  As Joseph Curl correctly points out, “Hillary has a serious Bernie problem.”

And I’m beginning to think that problem is fatal.  Everyone knows Hillary is a liar of the first magnitude.  Ask any Democrat whether they think Hillary is honest and they will do anything possible to avoid the question, even her most ardent supporters (who are dwindling).  And to keep up with Sanders, she is having to veer hard left, which doesn’t exactly mesh with her, to put it mildly, lavish lifestyle. The Democrats may be left without a center-left candidate who can win the general.

So here’s a prediction.  At some point, Joe Biden is going to get into this race and, despite all his well-known fumbling, will be the most formidable candidate they have.

(Hey, what’s a blog post without a wild prediction.  As Groucho would say, if I’m wrong, I’ve got others.)

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