The latest Quinnipiac poll is full of fascinating information, much of it unfavorable to Hillary Clinton. Among the highlights are:
In Florida, Bush tops Clinton 49-38 percent; Rubio leads Clinton 51-39 percent; Trump leads her 43-41.
In Ohio, Rubio leads Clinton 42-40, but Bush trails her 39-41 and Trump trails 38-43.
In Pennsylvania, long a Blue State, Rubio and Bush lead Clinton 47-40 and 43-40, respectively, but Clinton beats Trump 40-45.
The margins of error in these states are +/-3 percentage points.
Conclusions? At this juncture, we probably shouldn’t draw any. But if we were to do so, the thought would be that Rubio is the most electable of the three Republicans and Trump the least. As for Clinton, she may be difficult for Democrats to elect unless she runs against Trump.
It also appears that Trump’s candidacy isn’t hurting Bush and Rubio insofar as a match-up with Clinton is concerned (nor was there ever any reason to think it would). Trump is, however, posing a threat to Bush and (to lesser extent, I think, Rubio) when it comes to securing the GOP nomination.
How would things look in these three states if Joe Biden replaced Clinton? In Florida, he does no better in this poll than Hillary. In Ohio, Biden does no better than Hillary against Bush, but somewhat better against Rubio (he edges the Florida Senator 42-41) and against Trump. In Pennsylvania, where Biden was born, the VP does very marginally better than Clinton against all three Republicans.
Keep in mind that Biden has not yet begun to fight. If he proved to be a good campaigner, his numbers might well improve. If, true to form, he became a gaffe machine, his numbers might sink.
On balance, Biden carries less baggage than Clinton, which is saying something given that he’s joined at the hip with an unpopular president. But Clinton has the advantage of attempting to become America’s first female president.
What about Bernie Sanders? He trails Bush and Rubio in all three states. Trump, he trails only Florida. Head-to-head against Clinton, the Vermont Socialist is far behind in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Not surprisingly, voters in all three states give Trump low favorability numbers and low numbers on honesty and trustworthiness. Not surprisingly, Clinton receives comparably low favorability marks and fares even worse than Trump on honesty and trustworthiness.