Hillary falls below 50 percent among Democrats

A Fox News poll finds that Hillary Clinton is favored by only 49 percent of Democrats. Bernie Sanders’ support is at 30 percent.

That’s quite a swing from June, when Clinton led Sanders by 61-15.

Clinton’s 19 point lead is still substantial. But in August 2007, she held a bigger lead over Barack Obama. Back then, she was ahead 48-26.

In 2007, the race was much closer in states with early primaries or caucuses. Clinton and John Edwards were virtually tied in Iowa (where Obama eventually triumphed and Clinton finished third) and Clinton had only a small lead over Obama in New Hampshire (where she went on to win).

We see a similar, but somewhat more ambiguous pattern this year. Sanders is leading Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a recent survey. But Sanders is from Vermont, and thus has something of a home court advantage in the Granite State.

In Iowa, Clinton has maintained a big lead. For what it’s worth, however, Sanders led Clinton in a straw poll conducted after both appeared this weekend at the Iowa state fair.

The new Fox News poll has Joe Biden at 10 percent. Were he to enter the race, that number would no doubt increase significantly. Whether Biden would catch Clinton and/or Sanders is a very different question.

Chris Cillizza argues that it’s too late for Biden to make a credible run, in any event. I’m not sure that this is true in the current state of play, and I’m pretty sure it’s not true if things get substantially worse for Clinton in the next month or two.

At a minimum, however, time is running out on Biden.


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