Typical of the New York Times to publish a news story on December 31, when no one is reading, that confounds the comfy liberal narrative that Donald Trump is deriving his popularity from crazy racist Republicans. But here’s the Times headline:
Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat
By Nate Cohn
Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in the Republican race in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the G.O.P. coalition.
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.
Mr. Trump’s huge advantage among these groups poses a challenge for his campaign, because it may not have the turnout operation necessary to mobilize irregular voters.
I have suspected all along that Trump was drawing from independents and Democrats. This suggests several things. First, as the last sentence above indicates, a lot of Trump voters may not participate in Republican primary contests. Second, I suspect this research is already adding to the panic of the media and the Clinton campaign (but I repeat myself), who are clearly terrified of a candidate who won’t abide by the rules. Further down in the story you find that Trump appears to be strong in a number of areas that could take some states from Democrats next fall, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida. It looks like he might actually draw from folks previously known as “Reagan Democrats” who probably aren’t much impressed with GOP tax cut plans that mostly reward higher income groups.
Also, this paragraph:
Perhaps above all else, the data shows that Mr. Trump has broad support in the G.O.P., spanning all major demographic groups. He leads among Republican women and among people in well-educated and affluent areas. He even holds a nominal lead among Republican respondents that Civis estimated are Hispanic, based on their names and where they live.
What! You mean Hispanics don’t have uniform views dictated to them by La Raza? How do you say “Uncle Tom” in Spanish?
Happy new year. This is going to be interesting. Hope you like roller coasters.
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