A South Carolina poll

Bill Kristol calls attention to a poll from South Carolina that he obtained from a political operative he trusts. The operative is not working with a campaign, but his organization, using a “reputable pollster,” took a poll Wednesday night. The results were as follows:

Trump 32
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Bush 10
Carson 7
Kasich 2

Is Rubio really doubling up Bush? Is he within 6 points of Cruz? I’m skeptical.

If so, however, Rubio can come out of South Carolina still viable even if he doesn’t improve on the showing in this poll. As importantly, this scenario would likely finish Bush off.

It’s also heartening to think that Cruz might only be 6 points behind Trump. That’s a gap he could eliminate.

The next GOP debate will, of course, have much to do with how Rubio performs in the primary. And if Cruz and Trump go toe-to-toe, as seems likely, there could be a shake-up at the top.

Apparently, there are publicly released polls from South Carolina since mid-January. At that time, which was before Sen. Tim Scott endorsed Rubio, the RCP average had it this way:

Trump 36
Cruz 20
Rubio 13
Bush 10
Carson 9

I like the numbers Kristol presents much better.


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