Okay, here’s a South Carolina poll that’s more in line than the one I mentioned yesterday with what I fear to be the case. Augusta Chronicle/ Morris News Service/Fox 5 Atlanta surveyed 779 likely GOP primary voters. The results are:
These results are nearly identical to those reported by Marist/WSJ/NBC in mid-January, except that Kasich has gained substantially. Is it plausible to think the shape of the race really changed so little in South Carolina in the past three weeks? Yes, I think it is.
Maybe it will begin to change now, with all the negative ads being run and a debate to take place tomorrow. I sure hope so.