In the first poll I’ve seen that was taken after James Comey’s statement regarding the Clinton email scandal, McClatchy/Marist finds Clinton leading by 3 points, 42-39.
McClatchy declares this a dramatic shrinkage of Clinton’s lead, saying it’s the first time Clinton’s support has come in at less than 50 percent. As far as I can tell, however, McClatchy/Marist hasn’t polled the race since late March. (Clinton’s lead was 9 points back then).
Prior to Comey’s announcement, the poll averages I had seen showed Clinton up by about 5 points. Thus, it’s not clear from the McClatchy/Marist poll that the FBI director’s remarks have hurt Clinton.
Better evidence of harm is found, perhaps, in Quinnipiac University surveys that show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania, and tied in Ohio. These results, all of which are within the margin of error, indicate something of a reversal for Clinton.
Lee Miringoff, director of research for Marist (and my distant cousin), puts it this way: “The good news for Hillary Clinton is that despite a very rough week, she still has a narrow edge; the bad news is these issues don’t seem to be going away.” It seems to me, though, that Clinton will never be in more political difficulty over her emails than she has been in the past week. Thus, it isn’t good news for Trump that he hasn’t overtaken her.
Is it unfair of me to wonder whether Trump would have made greater inroads had he not spent his week praising Saddam Hussein’s alleged toughness on terrorists and then defending this position?