I wrote here about the possibility that the presidential race in Minnesota may be closer than anyone expected, based in part on the fact that both candidates had started running television ads here. Still, I expressed skepticism that Trump could actually win. But it looks like Trump wasn’t kidding: in the campaign’s last days, he is coming to Minnesota:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has said in recent days that Minnesota is his to win, will make his first public visit to the state Sunday afternoon.
“We’re going up to Minnesota which, traditionally has not been Republican at all,” Trump said at a rally in Florida. “And we’re doing phenomenally. We just saw a poll.”
Trump might just be trolling the Clinton campaign, but I doubt it. My guess is that his campaign’s polling does show Minnesota as competitive. Otherwise, it would be silly to waste time during the critical finale of a close race. Not only that, Mike Pence is coming to Minnesota too:
Vice-presidential nominee Gov. Mike Pence will have a rally at the Duluth airport at 9:30 a.m. Monday.
Minnesota is, in general, trending Republican. There is a good possibility that the GOP may capture the state Senate next week, to go along with its control of the House. On the presidential level, there is a stark contrast: Trump dominates outstate Minnesota, not just northern Minnesota, as has been widely reported, but just about all rural areas of the state. Clinton, on the other hand, will win big in the Twin Cities, including some suburbs that have generally been tossups or leaned Republican.
Nowadays, the metropolitan area is where most votes are to be had, which is why I haven’t taken Trump’s chances very seriously. But who knows? Trump is putting his money–and more important, his time–where his mouth is.
Maybe his pollsters really are seeing a significant shift. We will find out soon.