Senate update: Burr wins, Ayotte and Blunt lead [UPDATED] [JOHNSON WINS!]

Richard Burr has held his North Carolina Senate seat, according to Fox News. He’s about 5.5 points (and more than 200,000 votes) ahead with 70 percent of the vote in. Unless North Carolina is Virginia (and maybe even if it is) Burr’s lead seems insurmountable. That’s how Fox sees it.

In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte leads by 3 points (and around 10,000 votes) with nearly half of the vote counted. They seem to be counting slowly up there, or else I’m relying on the wrong sites.

In Missouri, Roy Blunt is off to a fast start. He’s up by 12 points, but with less than 20 percent of the vote in. Missouri is a bit like Virginia. The Republican usually needs a big lead because the St. Louis vote can overwhelm a small one.

All in all, the Senate is looking good for the Republicans now.

We should also keep in mind that incumbent Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, though a Democrat, isn’t a reliable one. It’s possible that he would become a Republican if doing so would flip the Senate. And even if Manchin doesn’t, the Democrats can’t count on his vote to pass liberal legislation.

UPDATE: Looking now at our Power Line picks, we find Sen. Toomey trailing pretty substantially in Pennsylvania, but Ron Johnson ahead in Wisconsin. Johnson’s lead is around 95,000 votes (and 6.3 points), but only about half of the vote has been counted.

A Johnson win would basically end the Dems’ hope of capturing the Senate.

JOHNSON WINS: So says Fox News. Must have been his interview with John Hinderaker.