My sense is the intransigence of the Democratic “resistance” mentality is going to make this present “government shutdown” the longest ever, with unpredictable political effects at this early point. It comes amidst evidence that Trump’s position might be improving. According to the most recent CBS News poll, Trump’s overall numbers continue to be underwater. His best numbers—still below 50 percent—are for his handling of the economy and his handling of terrorism. Both come in about around 45 percent approval; everything else is down in the 30s. But those are generally the two mist important issue areas for voters these days.
Then you come to this question: “Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the next three years with Donald Trump as president?”
That starts to look like the foundation for a successful re-election, though it is early yet.
Then there’s the most recent poll from the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which ought to cause heartburn for Minnesota Democrats:
The Star Tribune’s first election year poll is complete and, all things considered, it was a good series of results for Minnesota Republicans. President Donald Trump’s job approval came in at 45 percent. His 2016 Minnesota tally: 44.9 percent. Which means after one of the most tumultuous first years in recent presidential history, if Trump lost supporters here, he must have gained an equal number. He was especially strong in the suburbs and in greater Minnesota, which could mean help for Republicans like U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis and GOP state lawmakers in the suburbs where Trump’s support remains strong.
In fact, the poll suggests Trump is running much stronger here than even a traditionally Republican state like Georgia. According to a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, Trump has a 36.7 percent job approval in the land of peaches and Coca-Cola, while a whopping 58.7 percent disapprove.
On the generic congressional ballot — will you vote D or R in your 2018 congressional election? — the Dems’ advantage is tiny.
Is Minnesota moving into Republican territory before our very eyes?