Query the Kavanaugh effect (2)

Quinnipiac is out with a new poll of likely Texas voters. It covers the period October 3-9, the climactic week of the attempted Kavanaugh assassination. It shows Senator Cruz maintaining a 54-45 lead over his challenger, Bobby O’Rourke. O’Rourke has made up no ground against Cruz since last month’s Quinnipiac poll. The Quinnipiac press release adds this:

Among Texas likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate, 96 percent say their mind is made up.

Cruz has a 52 – 44 percent favorability rating. O’Rourke has a divided 45 – 47 percent favorability rating.

“Is the Beto bubble bursting or just hissing away with a slow leak? With less than four weeks until Election Day, Congressman Beto O’Rourke has hit a wall and remains the same nine points behind Sen. Ted Cruz as he was when Quinnipiac University polled the race last month,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose. That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won’t change their minds.”

“O’Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating,” Brown added.

The Kavanaugh effect hasn’t enlarged Cruz’s lead, but it certainly hasn’t hurt him and it may have solidified his support. Texas voters probably didn’t need a reminder of what Democrats are all about. They have nevertheless gotten a good one over the past few weeks. They have Bobby’s number. He’s one of them (i.e., a Democrat).

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