Victor Davis Hanson makes “the case for Trump” in his new book by that name. He kindly summarized his case in a piece for Power Line written at Scott’s request.
For nearly all conservatives, the case for Trump is persuasive, whatever the Never Trumpers say. It consists of largely sound economic policies accompanied by economic growth; nominating and confirming judges with conservative views and/or temperament; renegotiating more equitable relationships with the EU, NATO, NAFTA, and the Chinese; and pulling the U.S. out of bad deals, most notably the Iran deal and the Paris Climate Accord.
For the voters Trump must persuade to secure reelection, the economic case is the key. I’ll dodge the question of how much credit Trump deserves, after two years in office, for the robust state of our economy. What matters for purposes of this discussion is that it’s by the state of the economy that swing voters are likely to judge Trump 20 months from now.
Today, the verdict is strongly positive. Gallup reports that Trump’s rating for handling the economy stands at 56 percent favorable. With Independents, it’s nearly the same — 54 percent. The same poll placed Trump’s overall approval rating at 43 percent (with 54 percent disapproving) and only at 35 percent among Independents.
Gallup says it has polled public approval of presidents’ handling of the economy since the Reagan years. The average approval rating during this period is only 43 percent. The average president during this period has been reelected.
Trump’s economy approval number has never been as low as 43 percent in any Gallup survey. The current 56 percent rating is the highest during Trump’s presidency.
If Trump maintains something like his current approval rating on the economy, he should prevail in 2020. Whatever their other reservations about Trump, it just doesn’t seem likely that Americans will vote to replace him if they think he’s doing a good job on issues of bread and butter. That’s all the more true if the Democrats nominate a candidate who, due to his/her left-wing views on the economy, makes the public nervous.
The big question, of course, is whether the economy will continue to perform in the manner that gives rise to Trump’s approval number. History says we’re past due for a recession. Can we avoid a serious slowing of the economy for another year-and-a-half?
I don’t know. I am of the firm opinion that if the economy goes south, so will Trump’s approval number for his handling of it. And if that happens, the case for Trump will lose much of its appeal to the voters he needs in order to win reelection.
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