The Shape of the Race

Yesterday’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll about the state of the Democratic nomination contest shows Joe Biden strengthening slightly while Elizabeth Warren has risen to a strong second-place position. In the bar graph below, you can see Warren’s gain comes almost entirely from the collapse of Kamala Harris. (Heh.) Beto? Beto who?

The “internals” of the poll, however, ought to make Biden’s campaign nervous. Pollster Mark Murray points out that only 9 percent of Democrats say their mind is made up; Warren has emerged as the leading second-choice candidate if Biden stumbles, and Warren’s supporters show the highest intensity/enthusiasm level, which is always something successful campaigns build on. You can almost sense the media starting to get behind her. Biden has the look of Bob Dole in 1996: an old party warhorse that Democrats might accept, but without great enthusiasm, as this chart shows:

Finally, this chart perhaps shows Biden’s weakness, as he swoons after two of the three debates. And there a more to come!

I’m betting on Warren.