President Trump warned us that America was in for a “rough week” of deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus. He was right.
On Monday, according to Worldometer, there were 1,970 reported deaths in the U.S. from the virus. Yesterday, April 8, there were 1,940. This followed a period of several days in which deaths averaged around 1,200.
The total U.S. death count stood at just under 15,000 at the end of yesterday. As of now, it stands at just under 16,000. At the rate we are going, it might well exceed 50,000 by the end of the month.
The University of Washington’s IHME model is projecting that the virus will kill approximately 60,000 Americans by August — down from around 80,000 a few days ago and more than 90,000 shortly before that. Its forecast for April is no more optimistic than what I suggested above. However, it predicts a steep decline in deaths in May and thereafter.
But, as I understand it, this steep decline assumes that strict social distancing measures remain in place well into the summer. I doubt that they will, or that they should.
The prediction of steep decline apparently is also based in significant part on numbers from China. The accuracy of those numbers is subject to question.