New York state’s Wuhan coronavirus numbers

Yesterday, April 5, New York state reported 599 deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus. To put this number in perspective, it’s 74 more than Italy reported and five more than Spain did.

However, it’s a slight decrease from the 630 reported deaths from the virus on Friday. It looks like New York’s death count has plateaued. And, according to Gov. Cuomo, the numbers suggest that the spread of the virus in New York is nearing its apex.

Cuomo also says that hospitalizations due to the virus are declining. The total number of hospitalizations in New York is significantly lower than that projected by the University of Washington’s IHME model. That model seems somehow to have overestimated the number of New York hospitalizations by 400 percent. At the same time, the model’s prediction of deaths in New York has been reasonably accurate so far.

At Hot Air, Allahpundit speculates as to why the IHME model was so far off in forecasting New York hospitalizations.

In any case, the news from New York is mildly encouraging. To me, the big question is whether the U.S. will see a significant number of mini-New Yorks.

Notice: All comments are subject to moderation. Our comments are intended to be a forum for civil discourse bearing on the subject under discussion. Commenters who stray beyond the bounds of civility or employ what we deem gratuitous vulgarity in a comment — including, but not limited to, “s***,” “f***,” “a*******,” or one of their many variants — will be banned without further notice in the sole discretion of the site moderator.