Joe Biden’s allegedly substantial lead over President Trump in various polls has gotten a great deal of attention, while also drawing considerable skepticism. Whether Trump’s standing with likely voters has actually cratered is dubious. Rasmussen Reports, the only pollster that does daily presidential approval polling of likely voters, has found Trump, in recent weeks, basically within the lower portion of the approval range he has moved in throughout his term. At the moment, Rasmussen has him at 47% approval, 51% disapproval, which is around where he has usually been during his term in office (and where Barack Obama generally was during his first term).
In the Trump-Biden matchup, Rasmussen now has Biden leading by 47%-44%, down from a ten-point lead a week ago. Putting aside the general meaninglessness of July polls, my guess is that Biden has peaked and will see a continued drag on his numbers as more voters see him in action and begin to worry about his mental state.