Is It Still October?

My calendar says it is only October 2 today, but we’ve had enough news this week for an entire month, and we got our “October surprise” on the first day of the month, which means we still have time for plenty more.

It was slightly earlier four years ago that the Access Hollywood tape came out, at which time everyone said: “IT’S OVER! TRUMP MUST DROP OUT! PENCE MUST TAKE HIS PLACE!” And we know how that turned out. I actually think Trump taking a couple weeks out of the spotlight may help his campaign, given that his personality is one of the biggest drags on his appeal with many voters. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his poll numbers improve by next week.

By the way, while most of the supposedly “reputable” polls look miserable right now, Investor’s Business Daily has a poll out today, taken since the debate Tuesday, showing it to be less than a three-point race. Don’t be so quick to dismiss this as a pro-Trump poll, since previous iterations had been more in line with the “mainstream” polls:

Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump has narrowed to 2.6 points among likely voters, a new IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll finds. Trump’s rise comes despite registered voters seeing Biden as the winner of Tuesday’s debate and coming across as more likable by double-digit margins. . .

The race has tightened somewhat since early September, when an IBD/TIPP poll of registered voters showed Biden with an eight-point edge, 49%-41%. An IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters released on Sept. 21 showed Biden with a 5.6-point lead, 49.5%-43.9%.

And this part is very telling:

Despite Biden’s polling edge, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 45% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 46% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.

When people say “I think my neighbor is voting for Trump,” is usually means that the respondent is voting for Trump. Clever pollsters have been asking this question for a while now, and the pollsters who weighted for this in 2016 were closer to getting the outcome correct. I can still give at least five reasons why I think Trump will pull it out on election day, but I’ll hold these off for another item next week perhaps.

Meanwhile, the second debate scheduled for October 15 might not come off, or be delayed by several days. My suggestion is that the second debate be combined into the third one, but make it a two-hour cage-match debate with no moderator.

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