President Trump’s victory in 2016 was based on his wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. How does this year’s race stand in these three states?
If you take polls seriously, it doesn’t look good for Trump in any of them.
In Pennsylvania, every poll taken since late August shows Joe Biden in the lead. The late August poll that didn’t show this had the two candidates tied. The current RCP poll average gives Biden a 5.3 point lead.
In Michigan, Biden’s RCP poll average lead is even more substantial — 8.1 points. There is one poll from this month that has Trump ahead. It’s by the Trafalgar Group, the outfit that predicted Trump’s victory in Michigan four years ago.
As I understand it, Trafalgar tries to take “shy Trump voters” into account. However, even its poll has Trump up by only 1 point.
In Wisconsin, the story is similar. Biden leads by 5.4 points in the RCP average.
There is a very recent poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Center for American Greatness that has the two candidates tied, and a Trafalgar Group poll puts Biden’s lead at only 2 points. But Fox News has Biden up by 5 points and just about every other polling organization finds the former vice president’s lead to be larger than that.
I’m not aware of other states that are likely to make up for electors Trump loses in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Thus, unless the polls are way off, the odds are solidly against Trump being reelected.