House updates

Yesterday, I wrote about three races in which the outcome may still be in doubt. Today, there is news about two of the races.

In Iowa’s second district, we have a winner — Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, at least for now. Today, the state canvass board certified her victory. The margin was six votes, reportedly the slimmest in any House race since 1984.

However, Miller-Meeks’ opponent, Rita Hart, is likely to challenge the result in court. It’s also possible, as Steve has said, that the Democrat controlled House will refuse to seat Miller-Meeks.

I doubt the House would do so. When the House Dems did this in 1984, they were in the midst of a long period of control. They probably never imagined that the shoe might one day be on the other foot (and it wasn’t for ten more years).

These days, with control of the House swinging back and forth, I question whether the votes would be there to overturn a result, upheld under court challenge, that will not determine which party is in charge. But stranger things have happened — and undoubtedly will.

Meanwhile, in New York’s 22nd district, we have a lead change. When I wrote my post last night, Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi led GOP challenger Claudia Tenney by 13 votes. That number turned out to be unlucky. Today, Tenney leads by 12 votes.

The current count is the first official tally, according to this report. It encompasses all eight counties in the district.

The swing in Tenney’s favor is the result of Herkimer County correcting what officials say was a tabulation error. An audit found that 45 ballots hadn’t been counted. They broke 35 for Tenney and 10 for Brindisi.

As I discussed yesterday, the outcome of this election is being litigated. The presiding judge, a Democrat, has asked the two campaigns to submit written arguments over how to handle disputed absentee and affidavit ballots by 4 p.m. Wednesday. The next public hearing in the case will occur on Monday, December 7.

I think it’s impossible to make a confident prediction of the final outcome in this race, which has been a procedural mess all along. However, with the case now in the hands of a Democratic judge, maybe Brindisi has the edge.