The state of play in Georgia

Last week, I wrote about what to expect from the election in Georgia. I based my post largely on the analysis of a Power Line reader from Georgia, an insider with extensive experience observing and participating in Georgia politics.

He alerted me to the prospect of two Senate runoff races in Georgia. He also predicted that Joe Biden would narrowly carry Georgia, but that Sen. Perdue would ultimately be reelected.

The outcomes in Georgia are up in the air, but my reader-correspondent’s calls look pretty good right now.

Today, he sent me this update:

Playing out exactly as I feared: Two runoffs likely (Perdue campaign believes this is the result) and Biden ekes out GA by 5k votes by my rough math.

We are aware of shenanigans in some Counties and the State Party and Trump Campaign have filed lawsuits.

Early take on runoff: If Biden wins and control of Senate is in the balance, advantage motivated Republicans who are also growing increasingly suspicious of voter fraud. Anger and fear are strong motivators.

Loeffler’s husband owns ICE (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) so she will self fund to a large extent, but early estimates are this becomes a $750m race, which dilutes her personal spend. We are about to see something unprecedented.

I should add that, although Perdue looks like coming up short of 50 percent, he will have a plurality of the vote. The third party candidate whose candidacy will cause the runoff is a libertarian, not a leftist.

In the other race — the “jungle primary” — the two GOP candidates have around 46 percent of the vote, while the Democrat is at around 33 percent. Rep. Doug Collins has strongly endorsed Sen. Loeffler.

UPDATE: My reader-correspondent just sent me these additional thoughts:

Kelly Loeffler is not a naturally gifted politician, but she has grown a measurable amount since being appointed by Governor Kemp. Her opponent, Warnock, is the pastor of Ebeneezer, and has natural charisma.

He has managed to stay above much controversy as Collins and Loeffler beat each other up in the primary. This caused Loeffler to run harder right than she is probably naturally inclined. Collins has, to his credit, pledged his full support to Loeffler. I expect Trump to make multiple visits here in the next two months.

David Perdue, former Fortune 500 CEO, draws a contrast with John Ossoff-a 33 year old documentary film maker. Perdue is a more gifted communicator than Loeffler and will hold his own against Ossoff.